Discord between Thailand and Cambodia could also threaten a [Thai economic] recovery

Export revival lifts industrial output forecast

12/11/2009
Bangkok Post

A recovery in export orders should lift industrial sector growth to between 4.5% and 5.5% next year, after a 5.9% slide this year, says the Industry Ministry.


The ministry bases its forecast on GDP growth of 3.1%, crude averaging $68 per barrel, the baht at 35.5 per dollar, and on World Bank projections of demand from Thailand's top 14 trading partners.

"We made it a bit conservative because the Map Ta Phut issue should drag investment sentiment slightly," said Suttinee Poopaka, director-general of the Office of Industrial Economics (OIE).

Capacity utilisation is forecast to rise from 56.4% this year to 63% next year, close to 62.6% recorded in 2007. Export orders reflect demand spurred by government stimulus packages, she said.

But Thailand's economic outlook depends on the stability of the global recovery and on domestic politics, she added. Discord between Thailand and Cambodia could also threaten a recovery.

Climbing fuel costs that could add to production costs are also a factor.